29/03/2026
Next week, U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed due to the Good Friday holiday, resulting in a shortened trading cycle. Against this backdrop, investors will continue to focus on two core areas: the development of the situation in the Middle East and comments from the Federal Reserve, in order to capture the future direction of monetary policy—especially as crude oil price volatility intensifies and inflation concerns rise, making the impact of these two factors on the market more prominent. Although ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are still ongoing, regional tensions have not been fully eased, and the risk of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to exert pressure on global markets.
In terms of the U.S. market, the key focus next week will be the March employment report to be released on Friday. Data expectations show that non-farm payrolls will increase by 48,000, which is expected to reverse the unexpected decline of 92,000 in February; the unemployment rate may rise slightly to 4.5%; average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.4%, the same as the growth rate in February. In addition to the employment report, a number of important economic data will be released next week, including: the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which is expected to expand for the second consecutive month; retail sales, expected to grow by 0.4%; JOLTs job openings, expected to drop to 6.85 million; and the trade balance, expected to widen the deficit. Furthermore, data such as ADP employment figures, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, business inventories, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Chicago PMI will also attract investors’ attention.
In other parts of the Americas, Canada will release monthly GDP, trade balance, and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data; Mexico will issue the Business Confidence Index; and Brazil will announce industrial production data.
The focus of the European market will be on the preliminary March inflation data of major economies. Investors will assess the impact of the Iran conflict on prices, covering major countries such as the Eurozone, Germany, France, and Italy. Expectations indicate that the Eurozone inflation rate will rise from 1.9% in February to 2.8%, the highest level since January 2024; on a monthly basis, Germany’s inflation rate is expected to increase from 0.3% in the same period last year to 0.9%, France’s to 0.8%, and Italy’s to 0.5% (compared with 0.3% in the same period last year). Switzerland’s inflation rate is expected to rise to 0.6%, also the highest level since December 2024. In addition, the Netherlands, Turkey, and Poland will also release relevant inflation data.
In terms of the labor market, Germany’s unemployment number is expected to reach 3 million, and the Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 6.1%; Italy, Turkey, and Russia will also release more labor market-related data. In the manufacturing sector, the March Manufacturing PMI readings of Spain and Italy are expected to show stronger industry activity, with Italy’s growth rate likely to hit a new high since the beginning of 2023. In the consumer and industrial sectors, Italy’s retail sales are expected to grow for the second consecutive month, while France’s industrial production may experience a slight pullback after the previous rebound.
Other important European data include: the EU Business Survey, German retail sales data, UK mortgage data, the Nationwide House Price Index and Q4 final GDP data, Switzerland’s KOF Leading Indicator, retail sales and Manufacturing PMI, as well as Turkey’s trade balance data. It should be noted that major European stock indexes will be closed on Friday due to the Easter holiday.
In the Asia-Pacific market, Chinese investors will focus on the official March PMI data to be released by the National Bureau of Statistics, which is expected to show that both the manufacturing and service sectors are in a state of stagnation; the RatingDog Manufacturing and Services PMI readings are also expected to reflect a slowdown in the growth rate of the two sectors.
In the Japanese market, the March unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.7%, industrial production may decline by 2.1%, and the annual growth rate of retail sales is also expected to slow down; in addition, the Q1 Tankan Manufacturing Index is expected to drop slightly, and Tokyo CPI data, the summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan’s March meeting, and the S&P Global March final PMI data will also be released one after another.
In India, the February industrial production growth rate is expected to remain basically unchanged at 4.7%. Australia will release the latest Ai Group Industry Index, building approvals, and trade data, with the trade surplus expected to remain around 2.5 billion Australian dollars; at the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its March meeting, at which the bank announced the second consecutive interest rate hike.
In addition, South Korea and Indonesia in the Asia-Pacific region will release trade and inflation data; manufacturing PMI data for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan China, Thailand, and Vietnam will also be released simultaneously.
[Disclaimer] Forex trading involves risk; please invest with caution. This content is for informational purposes and objective analysis only, and does not constitute any investment advice, basis for buying/selling, or guarantee of returns. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, and bear their own investment risks.
